Newsom’s Polling Among Key Constituencies Lags Behind Vance: Report

California Governor Gavin Newsom, often targeted by Republicans over high taxes and strict COVID-19 policies, has emerged as an early Democratic frontrunner for the 2028 presidential race. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll from September 2 placed him at 21% support among Democrats. Close behind were Vice President Kamala Harris with 19%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%.

Despite his early lead, Newsom’s national approval ratings reveal vulnerabilities. A Cygnal poll conducted September 9 among 1,500 likely voters gave him a net approval of -5, with 38% approval and 43% disapproval.

His weakest showing comes from non-college voters, who disapprove of him by a 21-point margin, a greater deficit than Harris faced in 2024. This problem is critical for Democrats in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Swing voters also present a major challenge. Newsom trails among them by 12 points, with 41% disapproving and only 29% approving of his performance. Analysts warn this could be decisive as independents, now the largest voting bloc at 43%, play a greater role in national elections.

Additionally, college-educated men narrowly disapprove of Newsom, while high-propensity voters — those who consistently turn out in elections — remain skeptical, with his approval rating underwater at 44%.

The data also shows skepticism among some Black Democrats who attend church regularly, with 16% viewing him unfavorably, posing challenges in key primaries like South Carolina.

Adding to controversy, Newsom’s team posted a cryptic message about DHS Secretary Kristi Noem: “Kristi Noem is going to have a bad day today. You’re welcome, America.” Critics compared it to ominous remarks preceding Charlie Kirk’s assassination, prompting referral to the Secret Service.