AI predicts who will win the 2028 US presidential election and gets ‘jawdropping’ result

Although the 2028 U.S. presidential election is still several years away, a new online simulation has already sparked discussion. The YouTube channel “Election Time” recently asked Grok, an artificial intelligence system created by Elon Musk’s company xAI, to simulate a possible election scenario.

The model examined a hypothetical race between Kamala Harris and JD Vance. To create the projection, the AI analyzed early primary polling numbers, betting market trends, and historical voting behavior across previous elections.

In the Democratic primary simulation, Harris appeared to lead with about 32 percent support. She was shown ahead of Gavin Newsom, who ranked second in the early polling estimates used by the model.

On the Republican side, the simulation suggested that Vance held a strong advantage. The AI estimated that he could receive close to 50 percent support in the primaries, placing him far ahead of Donald Trump Jr. and other possible candidates.

Based on these early indicators, Grok predicted that Harris and Vance would most likely win their parties’ nominations if similar trends continued. However, the projection remains highly speculative because the real primaries are still years away.

The AI also produced a detailed Electoral College map, categorizing states as “solid,” “likely,” or “lean” for each candidate. This type of classification is commonly used by political analysts when forecasting election outcomes.

In the scenario, Vance was projected to win traditionally Republican states as well as key battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Harris was shown holding major Democratic states such as California, New York, and Massachusetts, but the simulation ultimately gave Vance a 312–212 electoral vote advantage.