Scientists is.ue ‘de.dly’ warning after Soviet

Astronomer Jonathan McDowell has warned that a Soviet-era satellite, Kosmos 482, could crash back to Earth between May 7 and 13. Originally launched in 1972 to study Venus, the satellite failed to escape Earth’s gravity due to an engine malfunction. While most of it burned up during reentry in 1981, McDowell believes a dense, heat-shielded capsule might still survive atmospheric entry. The object, if it is indeed Kosmos 482, could hit the ground at high speed, but poses no nuclear threat. Though the chances of injury or damage are very low, the Russian government would be liable if harm occurs.

McDowell emphasized that the satellite’s parachute system likely won’t function, meaning it may crash while partially on fire. However, he reassured that the odds of it hitting anyone are extremely slim. With much of the Earth’s surface uninhabited, the chance of striking a person is around one in 10,000, and the odds of it hitting a specific individual are closer to one in 10 billion. While not zero, the risk is low enough that people shouldn’t worry—unless they’re incredibly unlucky.